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The Rendon Group Snapshot Report
Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at Alert@Rendon.com or +1-202-745-4900.
Brazil’s Presidential Elections
Brazilian Naval forces drive over electoral leaflets as they patrol the streets of Rio De Janeiro – 05OCT14 | Reuters
This week’s snapshot focuses on Brazil’s presidential election campaign. Incumbent President Dilma Rousseff who got 42% of votes in the first round is in a tight race with Aecio Neves, who had received 34% and the endorsement of ousted candidate Marina Silva. Ms. Rousseff’s incumbent status, a historically strong advantage in elections, is undermined by a lagging Brazilian economy and corruption allegations related to state-run oil company Petrobras.
News Summary of events during the week of 13OCT-19OCT
Sample of Twitter handles regarding Brazil’s Presidential Elections
Sample of Third Party Validators regarding Brazil’s Presidential Elections
Heni Ozi Cukier, Professor of international relations, Fundação Getúlio Vargas University
“If the Workers’ party wins again, it will be 16 years in power. That’s a very long time. It means we are progressively moving towards an undemocratic government. The Workers’ party is changing the national debate and changing everyone’s perceptions and it’s controlling the way people see reality. It’s terrible for a democracy. If Dilma is re-elected, there will be an erosion of checks and balances and the division of power.”
– Dilma Rousseff in pole position as Brazilians set to vote for their wallets, The Guardian, 03OCT14
Jason Marczak, Deputy Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center at the Atlantic Council
“We now have the same parties and debates we’ve had for 20 years, but we have a different Brazil. It’s now a middle-class country, and the citizenship will place different demands on whoever wins. Silva’s support is important for Neves, but not decisive, because he needs to win over more than 70% of Silva’s voters, and some are more sympathetic to the leftist Rousseff. No matter what promises he’s made, to carry them out he’ll need to rely on Congress … the idea of a new politics worked better in theory than in practice.”
– In Brazil, old parties and debates dominate presidential runoff vote, LA Times, 16OCT14
Fernando Abrucio, Professor and researcher, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, São Paulo
“The volatile voter will decide this election. This has been the most competitive and hardest to predict presidential election since 1989.”
– Brazil Presidential Candidates Remain in Dead Heat, The Wall Street Journal, 15OCT14
Carlos Langoni, President, Consultancy Projecta Consultoria Econômica
“For the new government, either if Dilma is re-elected or if Aécio wins, the top priority in terms of restoring growth will be to first implement consistent macroeconomic policy. Otherwise we will be heading for a serious crisis.”
– Aécio Neves has momentum in Brazil election, Financial Times, 12OCT14
James Barrineau, Co-head of emerging markets debt, Schroders Investment Bank
“An election victory for Neves could begin a more virtuous cycle for a country that has been long out of favor. (…) If Rousseff gets re-elected, we would expect an eventual credit downgrade to sub-investment grade would be a high probability over the course of the next two years.”
– On Brazil Elections, Market Prefers Neves Over Dilma, Forbes, 09OCT14
Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to Brazil’s Presidential Elections
Media: Associated Press
Date: 12 October 2014
SAO PAULO (AP) — Marina Silva, a popular environmentalist who finished third in the first-round of Brazil’s presidential election, gave her endorsement Sunday to the opposition candidate challenging President Dilma Rousseff in the Oct. 26 runoff.
The endorsement from Silva comes as Rousseff appeared to be in a tight race with Aecio Neves, a business-minded former governor who has promised to open Brazil’s economy and boost its growth.
The two candidates are in a statistical tie according to surveys by the polling firms Datafolha and IBOPE. Some 51 percent of voters surveyed in the last week supported Neves, compared to 49 percent for Rousseff. Both polls had a margin of error of 2 percentage points.
Media: EFE (Spain)
Date: 16 October 2014
Rio de Janeiro, Oct 16 (EFE).- Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and her social democrat contender Aecio Neves, who will compete for the presidency of the country in a second round of elections on October 26, have technically tied in two new polls of voting intentions.
Ibope and Datafolha, two of the most prestigious polling firms in Brazil, announced results which were not very different from surveys last week, in which Neves outperformed Rousseff by merely 2 percent, within the margin of error.
According to Datafolha, the social democrat senator remains in first place with 51 percent of valid votes and only 2 points ahead of Rousseff, with 49 percent, but since the margin of error of the poll is two percentage points both are technically tied.
Date: 17 October 2014
BRASILIA (Reuters) – Opposition candidate Aecio Neves would defeat President Dilma Rousseff by almost 13 percentage points in the Oct. 26 runoff to Brazil’s presidential election, according to a poll published on Friday.
The poll was conducted by Sensus, a research institute that is not as closely watched as Brazil’s larger polling firms Ibope and Datafolha, whose polls show Neves and Rousseff in a dead heat.
If the runoff were held today, Neves would win 56.4 percent of the valid votes – which exclude undecided voters, spoiled and blank survey responses – against 43.6 percent for Rousseff, Sensus said.
The previous Sensus poll last week had given Neves an even larger margin of victory of 17.6 percentage points.
Media: Xinhua (China)
Date: 17 October 2014
BRASILIA, Oct. 17 (Xinhua) — Brazil’s top electoral authority has banned negative campaigning for the presidential run-off on Oct. 26, local media reported Friday.
Negative ads were getting so virulent that the Supreme Electoral Court decided to step in and prohibit mudslinging in free radio and TV slots granted to the candidates.
The electoral body urged the two candidates, incumbent President Dilma Rousseff and conservative opposition candidate Aecio Neves to use the broadcast time to present their proposals to the electorate.
The ban, the first of its kind in Brazil, does not apply to paid advertising in other media.
Byline: Anthony Boadle
Date: 19 October 2014
BRASILIA (Reuters) – Opposition candidate Aecio Neves is heading into the final week of Brazil’s presidential race with a razor-thin lead in polls, but it’s the incumbent Dilma Rousseff who appears to be gaining momentum in the homestretch.
After a sudden surge before and after the first-round vote on Oct. 5, Neves is struggling to retain the momentum that gave him a slight advantage in recent polling.
He leads Rousseff by 2 percentage points in the most closely watched opinion polls, within their margin of error.
Recent surveys show that support may have peaked for Neves, an investor favorite, and his disapproval numbers are rising amid a barrage of attacks by the Rousseff campaign.
The number of Brazilians who say they would never vote for Neves rose 4 percentage points this week to 38 percent, according to a survey by the Datafolha polling firm. Rousseff’s rejection rate came down one point to 42 percent in the same poll, which also showed her approval rating on the rise.
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