The Rendon Group Snapshot Report – 27 June 2016

by TRG Alerts Admin on July 4, 2016

The Rendon Group

(27JUN16)

Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at Alert@Rendon.com or +1-202-745-4900.

Brexit: Leave Camp Clinches Majority in Surprise Victory

brexit (640x384)Newspaper coverage of the British referendum results, 24JUN16. (The Guardian)

This week’s snapshot focuses on the British referendum on European Union membership. In a speech during the 2013 British general election, Prime Minister David Cameron promised an in/out referendum if the Conservative party won. The proposal was the latest in a decades long debate regarding Britain’s relationship with the EU. In last ditch efforts before Britons headed to the polls, EU member states expressed their position on the divisive vote. By early Friday morning local time, the results were announced that the so-called ‘Brexit’ camp won by a razor-sharp margin. In the ensuing hours and days, world markets tumbled, PM Cameron announced his intention to resign, and parliament was in disarray. European leaders have sought to agree on a unified response as questions mount over the future of Britain, its relationship with the EU and the overall future of the post-1945 order. Analysts and observers are also questioning whether the non-binding referendum will actually be advanced with the invocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

News summary of events during the week of 20JUN16 – 27JUN16

  • 20JUN: European Union President Donald Tusk said Britain’s closely-watched referendum on EU membership should be seen as a “warning signal” for the rest of the bloc, as he again urged Britons to stay in the ‘European family.’ (AFP)
  • 20JUN: Both campaigns were suspended and PM Cameron urged people to unite against hatred after the murder of MP Jo Cox sparked a fierce debate over the divisive nature of the referendum battle. (AFP)
  • 21JUN: PM Cameron warned that a vote to leave the EU in a referendum would harm the economy, representing a “huge risk” for jobs and families. (AFP)
  • 21JUN: French far-right leader Marine Le Pen called on all European Union members, including France, to follow Britain’s example in holding a referendum on remaining in the bloc. (AFP)
  • 22JUN: French President Francois Hollande warned that if Britons voted to leave the European Union it would be an irreversible decision that could seriously jeopardize Britain’s prized access to the bloc’s single market. (Reuters)
  • 22JUN: European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker will not step down if Britain votes to leave the EU in the referendum, his spokesman said. (AFP)
  • 23JUN: UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, a key figure calling for Britain to leave the European Union, said it looks like the Remain camp will win the referendum. (Reuters)
  • 23JUN: Global share markets rallied while safe-haven debt wilted early in Asia as a poll of UK voters suggested the country would remain in the European Union. (Reuters)
  • 24JUN: British national media declared Britain has voted to break out of the European Union. (AFP)
  • 24JUN: Scotland sees its future as “part of the EU”, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said following a forecast Brexit victory in the EU referendum, which she had earlier indicated could precipitate Scottish independence. (AFP)
  • 24JUN: Northern Ireland should be allowed to vote on uniting with the Republic of Ireland after the British-ruled province voted to remain in the bloc, the Sinn Fein party said. (AFP)
  • 24JUN: EU Parliament President Martin Schulz expressed hopes that Britain’s decision to leave the EU would not lead to contagion, as Germany’s finance minister said clear procedures for an exit from the bloc provided “reliability”. (AFP)
  • 24JUN: British PM David Cameron said he would resign as prime minister by October. (Reuters)
  • 24JUN: Stock markets in Asia and Europe crashed while bank analysts predicted that Britain and the eurozone would fall into recession as a result of the uncertainty triggered by Britain’s plans to leave the European Union. (DPA)
  • 24JUN: Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faced a serious challenge after two senior Labour politicians submitted a motion of no confidence in his leadership. (The Guardian)
  • 24JUN: The leaders of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland dismissed a call for a vote on unification. (AFP)
  • 24JUN: IMF Chief Christine Lagarde called for “clarity” on the negotiations over the terms of a British exit from the bloc and expressed her hope for “as smooth a transition as possible.” (Reuters)
  • 25JUN: Britain’s European Commissioner Jonathan Hill announced that he will stand down, saying he was “very disappointed” but “what is done cannot be undone.” (WSJ)
  • 25JUN: The backlash against Brexit strengthened when a petition calling for another referendum exceed 2 million signatures — a level that means it must now be debated by British politicians. (TIME)
  • 26JUN: Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn faced a revolt on over his handling of Britain’s EU referendum as seven members of his top team resigned and others seemed set to follow. (AFP)
  • 26JUN: British business minister Sajid Javid urged companies not to panic following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union despite dire warnings of the economic consequences of the Brexit vote. (AFP)
  • 27JUN: The influential 1922 Conservative Party committee said that a new leader should be in place by 02SEP at the latest, with nominations opening on Wednesday and closing on Thursday. (AP)
  • 27JUN: PM Cameron told parliament that Britain must not turn its back on Europe or the rest of the world even though it is leaving the European Union. (AFP)
  • 27JUN: The leaders of Germany, France and Italy vowed “a new impulse” for the EU and told London they would make no deals before it formally informs Brussels it will leave the bloc. (AFP)

Sample of Twitter handles tweeting about the UK’s exit from the European Union

  • @AlexWhite1812 – Alex White, Regional Director, Economist Intelligence Unit
  • @ChrisGiles_ – Chris Giles, Economic Editor, Financial Times
  • @lizziedearden – Lizzie Dearden, Senior reporter, Independent
  • @RichardHaass – Richard N. Haass, President, Council on Foreign Relations
  • @steve_hanke – Steve Hanke, Professor of applied economics, Johns Hopkins University

Sample of Third Party Validators regarding the UK’s exit from the European Union

Ben Harris-Quinney, Chairman, The Bow Group

“For Boris the sooner a leadership challenge comes the better. If Cameron stays on longer than 12 months there is a real danger that other candidates will emerge and will have the time to establish their name and their position with the membership base.”

  • “Boris Johnson Emerges as Big Winner in Brexit Vote,” WSJ, 23JUN2016

Bronwen Maddox, Director, Institute for Government

“There is a growing intolerance for representative government, which is likely to have consequences for the ability of any government to run the country.”

  • “‘Brexit’ Aftershocks: More Rifts in Europe, and in Britain, Too,” NYT, 24JUN2016

Jeremy Greenstock, Chairman, Gatehouse Advisory

“The people of the U.K. are looking at a period of at least a decade when their economy and their global impact will stand at lower levels as a result of this decision. This will have to be adjusted to.”

  • “Britain struggles to absorb Brexit’s political and financial impact,” WP, 25JUN2016

Megan Greene, Chief economist, Manulife Asset Management

“The real question now is how badly the EU will punish the U.K. for this decision.”

  • “British Brace for Economic Repercussions of EU Exit Decision,” AP, 25JUN2016

Nicholas Cull, Professor of public diplomacy, University of Southern California Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism

“The whole ‘remain’ campaign got mired in the negative. But it’s bigger than the campaign. In terms of public diplomacy, the European Union failed to communicate and did not do enough to remind us of the European Dream. The European Dream was about learning to work together and about celebrating our differences, and about moving forward in peace, and about being better because our connections.”

  • “The British establishment didn’t think ‘Brexit’ could win, but it did. Here’s why.” LAT, 24JUN2016

Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to the UK’s exit from the European Union

  1.  British PM says Brexit poses ‘huge risk’ to economy

Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 21 June 2016

London, June 21, 2016 (AFP) – British Prime Minister David Cameron warned Tuesday that a vote to leave the EU in a referendum to be held in less than 48 hours would harm the economy, representing a “huge risk” for jobs and families.

“Above all it is about our economy,” he said outside the prime minister’s residence in London’s Downing Street.

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  1. Brexit specter rocks global financial markets

Media: Associated Press

Byline: N/A

Date: 24 June 2016

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — Global financial markets dived on Friday as media reports forecast that British voters had opted to leave the European Union, shocking investors and triggering jitters across the globe.

Tokyo stocks plunged more than 7 percent and South Korea’s Kospi tumbled about 4 percent. Crude oil prices and U.S. futures also took a big hit. The British pound plummeted more than 10 percent in six hours while the yen surged nearly 4 percent to the U.S. dollar as investors seeking safety snapped up the Japanese currency.

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  1. Brexit unlikely to lead to contagion: EU’s Schulz

Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 24 June 2016

Frankfurt, June 24, 2016 (AFP) – The European Parliament’s chief expressed hopes Friday that Britain’s decision to leave the EU would not lead to contagion, as Germany’s finance minister said clear procedures for an exit from the bloc provided “reliability”.

EU Parliament President Martin Schulz said he would speak with German Chancellor Angela Merkel “on how we can avoid a chain reaction” of other EU states following.

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  1.  Irish leaders dismiss call for unity vote after Brexit

Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 24 June 2016

Dublin, June 24, 2016 (AFP) – The leaders of Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland dismissed a call Friday for a vote on unification after Britain’s shock decision to leave the European Union.

Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny said there were “much more serious issues to deal with in immediate terms” and recalled parliament for an emergency session on Monday, national media reported.

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  1. ANALYSIS: Britain has voted to leave the EU – what happens next?

Media: The Guardian (UK)

Byline: Patrick Wintour and Damien Gayle

Date: 25 June 2016

The UK’s historic decision to end its 43-year love-hate relationship with the European Union represents a turning point in British history to rank alongside the two world wars of the 20th century.

On the assumption there is no turning back, or collective buyer’s remorse, Britain will live with the political, constitutional, diplomatic and economic consequences for a decade or more.

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