The Rendon Group Snapshot Report – 23 June 2014

by TRG Alerts Admin on June 23, 2014


The Rendon Group Snapshot Report



Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at or +1-202-745-4900.


Ukraine Ceasefire

Source: Reuters


This week’s snapshot focuses on the ceasefire declared by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on 20JUN. The ceasefire, part of a fourteen-point plan released by President Poroshenko, called for the creation of a buffer zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border. While Russian President Putin expressed support for the ceasefire, reports of alleged provision of training and weapons by Moscow to pro-Russian separatists continued.



News Summary of events during the week of 16JUN-23JUN

  • On 16JUN, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he will propose a detailed peace plan this week, including a ceasefire with separatist rebels in the country’s east. (AP)
  • On 17JUN, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Poroshenko discussed a possible ceasefire after a second member of a Russian television crew was confirmed to have died in the east of the ex-Soviet state. (AFP)
  • On 18JUN, President Poroshenko said that he would soon order a unilateral ceasefire in the separatist east as part of a broader plan to end the 10-week insurgency. (AFP)
  • On 20JUN, President Poroshenko on Friday released a 14-point peace plan to curb a pro-Russian insurgency in the east, calling for immediate disarmament and promising to decentralize power through constitutional reform. (AFP)
  • On 20JUN, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called Russia’s Vladimir Putin to discuss a plan to end the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine. (AFP)
  • On 20JUN, Russia redeployed more troops to the Ukrainian border, including special forces units that are arming and training pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists, U.S. officials said. (WP)
  • On 20JUN, Ukraine’s new president declared a one-week cease-fire in the fight to put down a pro-Russia rebellion, starting a process the West hopes will pressure Moscow to rein in separatists it has been accused of supplying with weaponry. (WSJ)
  • On 22JUN, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko informs US Vice President Joe Biden that Russian-backed separatists are continuing to attack Ukrainian forces. (AFP)



Sample of Twitter handles regarding Ukraine Ceasefire

  • @ChristopherJM – Christopher Miller, editor of the English-language Kyiv Post
  • @myroslavapetsa – Myroslava Petsa, reporter with Ukraine’s Channel Five news
  • @maxseddon – Max Seddon, Buzzfeed correspondent, former AP reporter
  • @BBCDanielS – Daniel Sandford, BBC News Moscow correspondent
  • @Herszenhorn – New York Times reporter based in Moscow


Sample of Third Party Validators regarding Ukraine Ceasefire


Clifford Kupchan, Washington-based Russia analyst at the Eurasia Group

“I think that [Russia] will keep agreeing to cease-fires, keep calling on the militants to stop the fighting and keep supplying the militants with arms until they achieve a stable equilibrium on their terms.”

       Conflicting Gestures From Putin to Ukraine Leaders, New York Times, 21 June 2014


Mark Galeotii, Professor, New York University

“In recent weeks Russia has tried, with varying degrees of success, to “attach and shorten the leash” over the armed rebels in the east.”

       Ratchet up, ratchet down, The Economist, 21 June 2014


Sergiy Bondarchuk, Researcher, Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies

“It’s not only [Russian President Vladimir] Putin who’s guilty for the loss of our territory, it’s politicians who didn’t build up the army.”

       Ukrainian army fights rebels and neglect, Washington Post, 21 June 2014


Dmitri Trenin, Head, Carnegie Moscow Center

“Believing that Russia is preparing to intervene militarily would be a severe underestimation of Putin’s intellectual capabilities. Contrary to what it might look like, there is a chance for an overlap between what Putin wants and what Poroshenko wants. They are closing in on a deal.”

       Vladimir Putin balances patriotism with politics in Ukraine, Financial Times, 22 June 2014


Aleksei Makarkin, Analyst, Center for Political Technologies

“Putin has to show that he is a strong leader who stands up for the national interests. On the other hand, he needs to send a message to the West that he is ready for a dialogue, to make it clear that he won’t escalate the situation, that there is no need to impose sanctions.”

       Putin Attempts to Straddle a Divide He Helped to Pry Open in Ukraine, New York Times, 22 June 2014



Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to the ceasefire in Ukraine


1.    Vladimir Putin, Ukraine President Discuss Possible Ceasefire: Kremlin


Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 18 June 2014


Moscow:  President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko discussed a possible ceasefire, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, after a second member of a Russian television crew was confirmed to have died in the east of the ex-Soviet state.


“The issue of possible ceasefire in the area of a military operation in Ukraine’s southeast has been touched upon,” the Kremlin said after the talks.


Putin expressed concern over the deaths of the two Russian media workers and stressed the importance of ensuring safety of reporters working in Ukraine, the Kremlin said.


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2.    Ukraine president says unilateral ceasefire to begin later Friday


Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 20 June 2014


Ukraine’s new President Petro Poroshenko said Friday that a week-long unilateral ceasefire would begin in the separatist east later in the day to give the pro-Russian rebels a chance to disarm.


“Today, on June 20, the ceasefire should begin. It will last through June 27,” Poroshenko said during his first visit to the restive Donetsk region since he assumed office on June 7.


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3.    Ukraine report new rebel attacks after ceasefire


Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 21 June 2014


KIEV, June 21, 2014 (AFP) – Ukraine said on Saturday that pro-Russian rebels continued to mount fierce mortar attacks against government forces in the strife-torn separatist east after rejecting the terms of the new pro-Western leader’s unilateral ceasefire.


The resumption of violence in the 11-week insurgency threatening to splinter the ex-Soviet state came as Washington slapped sanctions on top separatist leaders and warned Russia against sending troops into Ukraine.


And Russia appeared to be ratcheting up tensions further by putting its central forces on “full combat alert” and ordering snap military exercises that will involve some 65,000 troops.


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4.    Russia concerned Ukraine military operation has ‘intensified’


Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 21 June 2014


Moscow is concerned Ukraine is stepping up its military operation against pro-Russian rebels despite having called a unilateral ceasefire, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Saturday.


“The fact that the so-called counter-terrorist military operation has intensified in parallel with the advancement of a peace plan is a cause for much alarm and concern,” Lavrov said on a visit to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.


Russia’s top diplomat, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency, also said Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s peace plan announced on Friday did not go far enough.


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5.    Hollande, Merkel call on Putin to ‘promote resumption’ of Ukraine talks


Media: Agence France-Presse (AFP)

Byline: N/A

Date: 22 June 2014


PARIS, June 22, 2014 (AFP) – French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday to back talks between Kiev and rebels in eastern Ukraine.


In a three-way telephone conversation, Hollande and Merkel “called on all sides in the conflict to cease hostilities and asked the Russian president to promote the resumption of negotiations,” the French president’s office said in a statement.


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