The Rendon Group Snapshot Report – 04 April 2016

by TRG Alerts Admin on April 11, 2016

The Rendon Group

(04APR16)

Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at Alert@Rendon.com or +1-202-745-4900.

Momentum for Impeachment Grows Against Embattled Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff

Rousseff

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff (R) and Attorney General Jose Eduardo Cardozo attend a meeting with supporters from the legal community at the Planalto presidential palace on 22MAR16.

(Mario Tama/Getty Images South America)

This week’s snapshot focuses on the current political crisis in Brazil. President Dilma Rousseff faces the threat of impeachment proceedings for her role in the corruption scandal regarding state oil giant Petrobras. Rousseff refuses to resign, despite the defection of a number of key allies.

News summary of events during the week of 28MAR16 – 04APR16

  • 28MAR: The leaders of Brazil’s largest party, Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, said it will decide to break away from President Rousseff’s coalition, sharply raising the odds of impeached amid a corruption scandal. (Reuters)
  • 28MAR: Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he believes his embattled successor can survive the mounting pressure in Congress for her impeachment. (AP)
  • 28MAR: Brazilian federal judge Sergio Moro, who is in charge of the sweeping Petrobras corruption investigation, sent the Supreme Court all documents found in Odebrecht offices, showing that the country’s largest construction company made payments to over 200 politicians. (Xinhua)
  • 28MAR: Tourism Minister Henrique Eduardo Alves resigned before vote on President Rousseff’s coalition, in a move that adds additional pressure. (BBC)
  • 29MAR: Former President da Silva said that he believes at least some members of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), an ally of the ruling Workers’ Party, will remain in President Rousseff’s government. (Xinhua)
  • 29MAR: The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party said that its members are leaving Rousseff’s governing coalition. (AP)
  • 29MAR: President Rousseff cancelled a trip to attend the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. (AFP)
  • 30MAR: Allies of President Rousseff horse-traded in Congress in a bid to find enough votes to ride out an impeachment drive after her main coalition partner quit the government. (AFP)
  • 30MAR: Federal judge Sergio Moro apologized for releasing intercepts of phone conversations between President Rousseff and her political mentor and predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. (EFE)
  • 30MAR: Brazilian President Rousseff said she was the victim of a coup amid the increasing threat of impeachment. (AFP)
  • 31MAR: Brazil’s President Rousseff faced a disapproval rate of 69 percent, an Ibope poll showed before impeachment vote. (Xinhua)
  • 31MAR: Supporters of President Rousseff took to the streets to protest against a looming impeachment vote. (AFP)
  • 31MAR: Brazil’s Supreme Court removed a politically explosive case against former president Luiz Lula Inacio da Silva from federal judge Sergio Moro. (AFP)
  • 01APR: Brazil’s former minister of education, Cid Gomes, presented an impeachment requirement against Vice President Michel Temer, leader of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), which left the government this week. (Xinhua)
  • 01APR: Members of the MST Landless Workers Movement told President Rousseff they would take to the streets to defeat a plan to oust her in a “coup,” as they termed an ongoing impeachment effort in Congress. (EFE)
  • 03APR: A Brazilian Supreme Court magistrate rejected including accusations linking President Rousseff to the Petrobras corruption case in her own political trial. (EFE)
  • 04APR: Politicians from seven parties in Brazil, including PMDB and PSDB, were named as clients of a Panama-based firm at the center of possible tax evasion scandal brought to public attention by a massive data leak, O Estado de S.Paulo said. (Reuters)

Sample of Twitter handles tweeting about Brazil President Dilma Rousseff facing impeachment

  • @elizondogabriel – Gabriel Elizondo, Correspondent, Al Jazeera English
  • @pdacosta – Pedro da Costa, Editorial Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Contributor to Foreign Policy. Previously at Reuters, The Wall Street Journal
  • @macmargolis – Mac Margolis, Contributor to Bloomberg View
  • @viaSimonRomero – Simon Romero, NYT Bureau Chief in Brazil
  • @AnthonyBoadle – Anthony Boadle, correspondent for Reuters

Sample of Third Party Validators regarding Brazil President Dilma Rousseff facing impeachment

Eliane Cantanhede, political commentator, Estado de S.Paulo newspaper and Globo TV

“In moments of crisis and transition, like now, the ideal leader is one who is neither too much nor too little of anything. Temer is assertive, but not aggressive. He speaks, but not too much. He’s restrained. Yet he has shown he can negotiate with anyone, on the right or left.”

  • “Brazil’s Temer: Poetry, quiet power, restrained calculator,” Reuters, 01APR2016

João Augusto de Castro Neves, Latin America regional director, The Eurasia Group
“Impeachment alone may not be the solution to the crisis. All of these scenarios — one in which she survives, the other one in which Temer takes over, and the new elections scenario — they all point to very tough policy making in the next year or two.”

  • “Dilma Rousseff Loses Support From Key Part of Brazilian Coalition,” New York Times, 29MAR2016

Oscar Vilhena Vieira, constitutional law professor, University Fundação Getulio Vargas (São Paulo)

“I don’t see any problem on the decision to tap the former president.” [However, there is] “a problem in opening this information to the public when it involves the president, because the president is not under his jurisdiction.”

  • “Crisis in Brazil Widens With Report of Firm’s Payments to Politicians,” New York Times, 23MAR2016

Andre Borges, professor of political science, University of Brasilia

“Dilma is trying to take advantage of the divisions within the PMDB. But [I] doubt she can succeed, because the smaller parties likely feel they could get better perks in a post-impeachment government.”

  • “Brazil’s President Scrambles to Avoid Impeachment,” The Globe and Mail, 01APR2016

Sonia Fleury, professor of political science, Getulio Vargas Foundation

“Dilma staying or going neither will solve the country’s problems. Half the country is in favor of impeachment and half is not. If she stays, the opposition will continue to impede her ability to govern – and if another person takes power, the other side will block them, because they will not have legitimacy of votes.”

  • “Brazil’s President Scrambles to Avoid Impeachment,” The Globe and Mail, 01APR2016

Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to Brazil President Dilma Rousseff facing impeachment

  1. Dilma Rousseff, President of Brazil, Resists Calls for Her Resignation

Media: New York Times

Byline: SIMON ROMERO

Date: 24 March 2016

BRASÍLIA — Striking a defiant tone as scandals engulf her government, President Dilma Rousseff of Brazil insisted in an interview on Thursday that she would not resign, even as momentum builds in Congress for her ouster.

Ms. Rousseff described the efforts to remove her from office as “lacking legal foundations,” and she lashed out at Eduardo Cunha, the speaker of the lower house of Congress, who has been plagued with scandals of his own. Ms. Rousseff said that Mr. Cunha put impeachment proceedings into motion as a way of deflecting attention from his own legal troubles over charges of bribery and money laundering.

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  1. Brazil’s PMDB party abandons Rousseff, quits coalition

Media: Associated Press

Byline: N/A

Date: 29 March 2016

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Brazil’s largest party is abandoning President Dilma Rousseff’s government in a decision that diminishes the possibility that she will survive mounting pressure in Congress for her impeachment.

The Brazilian Democratic Movement Party known as the PMDB said on Tuesday that its members are leaving Rousseff’s governing coalition. The decision was reported by state news agency Agencia Brasil.

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  1. Brazil’s Rousseff gets relief from Supreme Court, supporters

Media: Reuters

Byline: MARIA CAROLINA MARCELLO AND LISANDRA PARAGUASSU

Date: 31 March 2016

Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled on Thursday to take a corruption investigation into former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva away from a crusading federal judge, as pro-government protests across the country eased pressure on President Dilma Rousseff.

Local television showed tens of thousands of supporters clad in red marching for Rousseff, who has faced growing calls for her impeachment since anti-corruption judge Sergio Moro released a wiretapped conversation of her and Lula this month.

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  1. Brazil Leader Dilma Rousseff Seeks Deals to Retain Rule

Media: Wall Street Journal

Byline: PAULO TREVISANI and MARLA DICKERSON

Date: 31 March 2016

BRASÍLIA—With her administration on the ropes and many here betting she will be gone by May, Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is scrambling to rouse support in congress and on the streets to save her job.

Following the exit of Brazil’s largest party, known as the PMDB, from her ruling coalition on Tuesday, Ms. Rousseff and her closest advisers intensified negotiations with smaller parties to put together enough votes to block impeachment proceedings fast bearing down on her, according to people involved in the talks.

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  1. Brazilian officials resign in new blow to Dilma Rousseff government

Media: BBC

Byline: N/A

Date: 01 April 2016

Two more senior Brazilian officials have resigned in the latest blow to the government of President Dilma Rousseff.

They are Sports Minister George Hilton and Col Adilson Moreira, who was organizing security at the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro next August.

Col Moreira reportedly wrote that he was ashamed the country was being led by “an unscrupulous group”.

The resignations come as Ms Rousseff battles for her government’s survival in an impeachment process.

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